Predicted impacts of climate change on wild and commercial berry habitats will have food security, conservation and agricultural implications
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Nov 1;845:157341. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157341. Epub 2022 Jul 13.
ABSTRACT
Climate change is now a reality and is altering ecosystems, with Canada experiencing 2-4 times the global average rate of warming. This will have a critical impact on berry cultivation and horticulture. Enhancing our understanding of how wild and cultivated berries will perform under changing climates will be essential to mitigating impacts on ecosystems, culture and food security. Our objective was to predict the impact of climate change on habitat suitability of four berry producing Vaccinium species: two species with primarily northern distributions (V. uliginosum, V. vitis-idaea), one species with a primarily southern distribution (V. oxycoccos), and the commercially cultivated V. macrocarpon. We used the maximum entropy (Maxent) model and the CMIP6 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 126 and 585 projected to 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. Wild species showed a uniform northward progression and expansion of suitable habitat. Our modeling predicts that suitable growing regions for commercial cranberries are also likely to shift with some farms becoming unsuitable for the current varieties and other regions becoming more suitable for cranberry farms. Both V. macrocarpon and V. oxycoccos showed a high dependence on precipitation-associated variables. Vaccinium vitis-idaea and V. uliginosum had a greater number of variables with smaller contributions which may improve their resilience to individual climactic events. Future competition between commercial cranberry farms and wild berries in protected areas could lead to conflicts between agriculture and conservation priorities. New varieties of commercial berries are required to maintain current commercial berry farms.
PMID:35842164 | DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157341
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About The Author
Patrick Blanchard MD
Meet Dr. Blanchard Dr. Blanchard’s medical practice is an embodiment of Integrative health which brings conventional and complementary approaches together in a coordinated way. Conveniently located in sunny Florida and over the internet with ValiseMD’s secure HIPPA compliant telXmed servers. Since 1994, patients with a wide range of challenging medical problems have achieved optimum health using the best of natural medicine, judiciously combined with high-tech innovations. Breakthroughs are often achieved even after patients have consulted mainstream specialists and holistic practitioners. Dr. Blanchard is founder and CEO of ValiseMD, Inc. He is board certified in Family Medicine since 1994 and awarded Fellow of the American Academy of Family Physicians in 2001. He received the ‘Teacher of the Year’ award from the University of Kansas School of Medicine at completion of his residency in Family Medicine. He completed a fellowship at Wake Forest University in the field of vascular neurosonology. He holds a medical patent in the field of Gastroenterology. He holds an unrestricted license to practice medicine and surgery in Florida. He started his medical career as a Emergency Medical Technician, then as a Paramedic and later a Medical Doctor.